![]() ![]() There is a famous saying that it's long and variable. In terms of the lagged effect, nobody knows. So I do think all of these things are going to matter, and they won't just look at one thing. While we did have a surprise in the headline number, I don't think they're going to ignore the slowing in wage growth, the move higher in the unemployment rate. And I think that holds with respect to this number, as well. MICHAEL FEROLI: So the phrase they like to use is they look at the totality of the data. Are they looking at a mosaic of data, or are they going to weight this report very heavily? And then I want to ask, just in general, if you can talk about what you think the lag monetary transmission is to the economy if they were to hike again. However, we're still thinking they remain on hold, again, partly in response to the tightening in financial conditions doing a lot of the work for them. In terms of the Fed, I think it makes November an interesting meeting, more interesting than it had been before this number. Certainly, financial conditions have recently been tightening, so that should reinforce the trend toward slowing job growth. MICHAEL FEROLI: Yeah, so obviously today's number was an interruption in a trend towards slowing job growth, which we expect will reassert itself going forward. So then going forward, I guess what's your expectation for the labor market? And then we'll talk about the Fed after that. But that being said, as I mentioned, it was pretty broad-based, and so most industries were adding jobs. And notably, last month, you had a pretty big increase in restaurant employment, and you had another strong increase in health care. Now, as in any month, there are some sectors that were stronger than others. So in private industries, I think it was about 64% of industries increased employment last month. MICHAEL FEROLI: It was pretty broad-based. Going one layer deeper, I want to ask, is the strength broad-based, or was it really concentrated in certain pockets? So in spite of this really strong job growth, you're seeing kind of steady measures of labor market slack and some modest slowing in wage inflation. ![]() So the unemployment rate, after it jumped in August, held on steady, held unchanged at 3.8% last month, and average hourly earnings actually came in a little softer, at only a 2/10 gain. Away from that obviously big surprise, most of the other details were actually more in line with expectations. MICHAEL FEROLI: Well, obviously it's kind of hard to ignore the smashing 336,000 increase, which was about double most people's expectations and really broke the trend of slowing job growth that had prevailed up until this report. And that is, what was your take on the jobs report? Do you want to highlight anything you thought was especially of note? SAM AZZARELLO: So Mike, I'm going to start where we always start. Mike, thanks so much for returning to the podcast. economist, to talk about the September jobs report. I'm joined today by Michael Feroli, our chief U.S. My name is Sam Azzarello, and I lead content strategy for global research. SAM AZZARELLO: Welcome to Research Recap. Please enter a valid search, no special characters allowed.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
Details
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |